Will home sales rebound in 2026 in Collin County?

by Christina Money

This is the question behind the question. What people really mean is: “Are we going to feel normal again?”

Let’s start with where we ended 2025 locally. Redfin showed 1,180 homes sold in Collin County in November 2025, down from 1,289 the year before (about an 8.5% dip). Redfin+1 That’s not “nobody is buying,” but it is a slower pace than we’re used to in Collin County.

So do I think 2026 rebounds?

Collin County tends to rebound faster than many places, but not in a straight line

Collin County has strong fundamentals: jobs, schools, and steady demand from families relocating or moving up. Even in slower years, people still need to move for life changes. What shifts is how they move:

buyers get more selective
sellers have to earn the sale
negotiations become normal again

The clearest “rebound lever” is mortgage rates. We started 2026 with the 30-year fixed around 6.15% (Freddie Mac). Freddie Mac+1 If rates drift lower, demand typically wakes up. If they pop higher, sales volume often stays muted.

What a “rebound” likely looks like in Collin County

I’m not expecting 2021-style frenzy. A healthier rebound looks like:

more showings per listing
fewer “stale” listings sitting 90+ days
sales volume improving while price growth stays modest

We’re already seeing conditions that allow sales to happen without panic. Days on market rose in late 2025 locally (Collin County around 73 days on Redfin), which is the market telling us buyers have options. Redfin When buyers have options, they need confidence. Confidence usually grows when rates stabilize and the headlines stop feeling chaotic.

What I tell buyers waiting for the “perfect time”

If you want to buy a home in Collin County in 2026, the “rebound” could work against you in one way: when more buyers jump back in, competition increases, and negotiation power shrinks.

So if you find a home you love that you can afford comfortably, you do not have to wait for a magic headline that says “The market is back!” The best deals usually happen before the crowd feels brave again.