Are Collin County home prices going to drop in 2026, or just grow slowly?

If you’ve been watching Collin County home prices like it’s a sport, you’re not imagining it: we cooled off. Redfin’s county data shows Collin County’s median sale price was about $435,000 in November 2025, down 8.4% year over year, and homes were taking 73 days on average to sell. Redfin

So what does that mean for 2026?

The Collin County reality: “One market” is a myth

Collin County is a bundle of micro-markets. The headlines will say “prices are down,” but your street might be a totally different story than the neighborhood two exits away.

Look at city-level examples from the same timeframe:

• Frisco: median sale price around $675K, down 6.2% YoY (Nov 2025). Redfin

• Plano: median sale price around $520K, down 3.0% YoY (Nov 2025). Redfin

• McKinney: median sale price around $482.5K, down 6.3% YoY (Nov 2025). Redfin

And then you zoom in even more and it gets spicy. Some Plano zip codes were up year over year (like 75025 and 75093), while others were down. Redfin+1

That’s why “Will prices drop in 2026?” is the wrong question. A better question is:

“Will my specific price range and neighborhood have more competition and more negotiation?”

What I’m watching for 2026 in Collin County

Based on where we ended 2025, here’s the pattern that usually follows:

1. The market rewards the homes that show well and are priced right.

2. Overpriced homes sit longer (and longer days on market changes buyer psychology).

3. Price reductions become normal, not “a red flag.”

One local stat that really matches what I’m seeing on the ground: Zillow’s Collin County dashboard showed a sale-to-list ratio around 0.978 (meaning homes, on average, sold a bit under list) and a big share of sales closing under list price. Zillow

My 2026 pricing take, in plain English

I think Collin County in 2026 is less about a dramatic “crash” and more about selective softness:

• homes with dated finishes, weird layouts, or tough locations feel the pressure first

• move-in-ready, well-staged homes in strong school zones still attract real competition

• the luxury side can be slower because the buyer pool is smaller and pickier

If you’re a buyer, this is the kind of year where you can negotiate without feeling like you’re begging. If you’re a seller, this is the kind of year where pricing strategy and presentation are not optional.